Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores · SIC 5600

Citi Trends Inc

CTRN

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Latest revenue

$197.1M

as of 2025-11-01

Latest net income

as of 2025-11-01

Net margin

as of 2025-11-01

Community sentiment

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CTRN vs S&P 500 · rebased to 100

+3.7% / yr 6.4 pts / yr vs S&P 500(S&P 500 +10.2% / yr) 114.9% total
Compare:
Early cycleMid cycleLate cycleRecession

Background shading marks the US business-cycle phase at each point in time — early, mid and late expansion, then recession— so you can see which economic backdrop each move happened in. Recessions are NBER-official; expansion sub-phases are ActaClear's editorial dating.

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Live market

as of Jun 30, 2026
$55.91
5.43%
Market cap
$465.7M
Enterprise value
$453.3M
P/E (trailing)
89.4×
Forward P/E
P/B
4.00×
Dividend yield
0.0%
52-wk high
$66.38
52-wk low
$28.44
Beta
Shares out
8.3M

What this company does

AI

ITEM 1.BUSINESS Overview Citi Trends, Inc. (“CITITRENDS” or the “Company”) is a highly differentiated off-price value retailer known for trendy fashions, great brands and amazing prices. We are the leading off-price retailer specifically focused on Black customers, delivering the styles, brands, and trends at amazing prices that resonate with our primary and secondary customers. Our product offering is Women’s, Men’s and Children’s apparel, family footwear, accessories and products for the home, with a three-tiered mix of product. At the opening price point, we offer value-focused basics for our most budget-conscious customers. The core of our business is our ‘better’ tier- quality products…

AI summary unavailable — showing raw filing excerpt

Generated from CTRN's filing dated 2026-04-15

Key risks

AI

ITEM 1A.RISK FACTORS You should carefully consider the following risk factors, together with the other information contained or incorporated by reference into this Report and our other filings with the SEC. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones we face. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we deem to be currently immaterial also may impair our business operations. The occurrence of any of the following risks could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Risks Related to our Business and Operations Our success depends on our ability to anticipate, identify and respond rapidly to…

AI summary unavailable — showing raw filing excerpt

Generated from CTRN's filing dated 2026-04-15

7.5
of 10

ActaClear Score

Above avg
#2 of 9 in Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores
+1.0 · 25d
Profitability·25%
8.1
Growth·15%
8.8
Value·20%
4.6
Quality·20%
Momentum·20%
8.8

Computed from 5 years of SEC fundamentals + latest market data, ranked within Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores (9 peers). 10 = best in industry, 5 = median, 0 = worst. Refreshed Jun 30, 2026.

7.21
Price / FV

Fair value · DCF

Deeply overvalued
~86% downside at this growth
0.8% / yr
-5%30%
Terminal growthWACC 9.8% · 10y forecast
Market-implied growth at today's price: 27.8% / yrfor 10 years, holding WACC 9.8% and terminal 2.5%.
Current price
$55.91
DCF fair value
$7.76
FCF base (last FY)
$5.21M
Net debt
$0.00
Methodology + caveats (click to expand)

Method. 10-year forecast of free cash flow, discounted at the company's WACC, with a Gordon-growth terminal at year 10. FCF is proxied by last fiscal-year net income (proper FCF needs CFO − CapEx by year, which we don't store yet). Beta defaults to 1.0 when not reported.

Why DCF is fragile. Treat the output as a thinking aid, not a verdict. Honest weaknesses of any DCF:

  • Growth is the dominant assumption. No one can foresee 10 years of growth — small changes in the slider can double or halve fair value. The reverse-DCF readout above tells you what the market is implicitly assuming; ask yourself whether that's realistic before trusting either number.
  • Terminal value dominates. In most DCFs, 60-80% of the answer comes from the terminal-value calculation — i.e., everything AFTER year 10. A 0.5pp change in terminal growth, or in WACC, can swing fair value by 20-30%.
  • WACC is itself a guess. We use a textbook CAPM cost of equity (Rf 4.3%, MRP 5.5%, β from the quote) plus a 6% pretax cost of debt — none of these are the company's actual marginal financing cost.
  • No moat / disruption modelling. The model assumes the company keeps earning whatever it earns today, compounding cleanly. Competitive shifts, regulatory action, and technology disruption can invalidate the forecast overnight.
  • Net income ≠ free cash flow. For capex-heavy names (semis, telcos) net income overstates distributable cash. For low-capex names (software) it understates. Both reduce the precision of the FV figure.
  • Reflexivity. A high stock price often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy via better hiring, financing, and customer trust. DCF can't see this.

Take the DCF, the reverse-DCF implied growth, the historical multiples, and the community sentiment together. When they agree, conviction. When they disagree, the disagreement is the most informative thing on the page.